© 2000 The Independent Fact Group

ANALYSIS   REPORT

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The Fact Group's aims and objectives:

The Independent Fact Group was formed in early 1999 to clear up the many question marks about the M/V Estonia disaster, in a structured and methodical manner. There has been considerable speculation concerning the efforts of the Joint Accident Investigation Commission (JAIC) and the political, legal and media treatment of the accident and its tragic consequences.

The aim is to give those in authority an opportunity, based on the facts of the case, to decide to review this matter, with a view to further action. Our efforts also enable the media and the general public to decide on the basis of the objective information which is available concerning the accident, and the conclusions to be drawn from a technical and civic perspective.

The overall objective is the setting up of a new investigation of the accident which can describe the course of the accident in detail, and its causes, with subsequent assessment of the moral and legal responsibilities, where this is feasible.

We are motivated by the belief that a properly conducted investigation will contribute to maritime safety and by our concern for Sweden's reputation as a nation which upholds safety at sea and the rule of law.

Methodology:

In the course of this task, we have assumed that the solution of a problem is never better than the validity of the basic assumptions. As a result, we have stipulated some methodological principles, of which the following are the most fundamental:

1. All scenarios must be considered to be true until the contrary is proved.
2. All observations, assumptions or statements on which a scenario is based must be considered false until the contrary is proved.

We have defined a number of criteria for concluding that an observation, assumption or statement may be considered to be true or false, and processes and routines for the route to be taken in clarifying an observation, assumption or statement. These criteria involve technical, empirical, statistical and/or semantic requirements which, if they are relevant must all be met if the observation, assumption or statement is to be classified as an objective fact.

The materials we have worked with are primarily the documents, audio recordings and films in the Swedish Accident Investigation Commission's Estonia archive, together with supplementary information from other public sources and, in addition documentation from the Meyer shipyard and its independent commission.

Questions regarding extensive activities at M/V Estonia between 1996 and 2000.

Summary

In this analysis, the Independent Fact Group shows that the video films taken by the "Bemis expedition in August 2000" on the ship wreck of M/V Estonia, reveals, among other things, that extensive activities has been performed on the wreck after June 1996 and before the summer of 2000.

The activities have involved the opening of the forward ramp, creating extensive damage to the same. Such mechanic damage must be the result from towing activities from the surface or via other forceful means at the site, as the damage pattern prove that the ramp must have been opened and later closed.The result has been that the lower "horizontal" beam on the ramp (where the hinges are) is completely broken in two places, and moreover has the vertical beams dislocated from the horizontal beam in several places.

The evidence can clearly be seen in comparison with the earlier video material recorded by the JAIC in 1994, and from the videos recorded during the recovery of the oil during 1996.

Analysis

Videos 1994 and 1996

All video films taken during the JAIC investigation of the wreck during 1994 and 1996 show the forward ramp on M/V Estonia slightly open, approximately between 0,6 to 1 meters at the top. The ramp had severe damage, mainly in the top where the starboard and port corners had been bent outward from the ramp frame. The flaps at the top of the ramp were bent towards the starboard side. Some of the main vertical beams were damaged and the ramp was also bent outward at the "height" of 3 meters. The main horizontal beam to which the four ramp hinges were welded, were not damaged. However, the two hinges at the port side, of the total of four hinges at the ramp, were broken.

The vertical beams, four main and six smaller ones located in pairs between the main beams were all still "in connection" with the main horizontal bottom beam. The starboard one had a severe damage and were extremely bent towards the center of the ramp. It had however not dislocated completely from the bottom horizontal beam. The damage can be seen in the starboard bottom corner of the ramp. Apart from that there were no other severe damage to the bottom horizontal beam on the ramp.

Videos 2000, the "Bemis expedition"

The video films taken by ROV the 29 August 2000 show a completely new damage situation of the forward ramp on M/V Estonia. The ramp was now found almost closed with an opening of only between 0,2 to 0,6 meters at the top. The bottom horizontal beam that earlier was almost without any damage at all, was now found completely broken in two places. The starboard vertical beam that earlier had a severe damage, but had not dislocated from the bottom beam, was now found dislocated and clearly much more damaged than it was 1996.

In the enclosed picture mosaic from the 1996 videos, showing the bottom of the ramp with the horizontal beam, we have marked where the beam is now found broken.

The Fact Group commentary:

The damage found in August 2000, proven by video, can not have occurred due to any other actions than that the ramp has been opened and reclosed between 1996 and the summer of 2000. The surface of the fractures have a thin layer of sediment and algae attached to them. Therefore these fractures can not have been made after early or mid summer of 2000. There is, due to the surface of the fractures no possibility that the main bottom horizontal beam on the ramp may have broken by underwater currents, fatigue or aggressive corrosion.

A total fracture of the beam can not happen unless an extreme external force is used to open and close the ramp. To be able to open and close the ramp, towing activities most probably have taken place from the surface.

Questions:

As the wreck has been under constant guardian and protection from both the Swedish and Finnish authorities to protect it from plundering and any underwater activities, the authorities should know what activities have been performed on the wreck between June 1996 until the summer of 2000.

Who has opened and closed the ramp?

Has it been opened and closed by the Swedish or Finnish authorities or by a third party?

Why has this been done?

The picture show damage on the ramp from the video SHK Estonia B 154 - 96.06.19. The areas marked are those where the "new damage 2000" is located. The odd object in the bottom right corner of the pictures is an arm on the ROV.

The pictures showing the "new" damage from the video material "Bemis 2000" can be seen below for comparison. There is also a picture last in this document showing where on the ramp the "Bemis pictures" were recorded.

Picture A show the second horizontal beam from the ramp bottom, where the arrow point from and to the vertical starboard beam close to the starboard bottom of the ramp. This vertical beam is now totally dislocated from the horizontal beam at the bottom of the ramp. The odd object in the bottom right corner of the pictures is an arm on the ROV.

Picture B show the bottom beam of the ramp on the starboard side, where the beam has been broken.

Picture C show the broken beam in a different perspective.

Picture D show the bottom beam of the ramp on towards the port side, where the beam has been broken a second time.

Picture E is an overview showing the area where picture B and D are connected in reality.

This picture show where the "Bemis pictures" were recorded. This pictures were recorded 29 August 2000 at 16.49 to 16.50.

The Independent Fact Group