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Car
Goat
Goat
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Keep choice: 0 times
   Wins: 0 cars (0%)  
Losses: 0 goats (0%)
Change choice: 0 times
   Wins: 0 cars (0%)  
Losses: 0 goats (0%)
 
Run times and the choice:
           
Imagine that you are in a TV-show and may win a price. You shall select one of three doors and you will get what is behind it. Behind one of the doors there is a car, behind the others a goat.

You select one of the doors. The host, who knows which door the car is behind, goes to one of the doors you didn't chose. He says "It was lucky for you that you didn't pick this door" and opens it. Behind that door there is a goat.

The host offers you to change your choice, to select the other door that is still closed.

What shall you do? Keep the door you picked first? Or change to the other one?
Or does it matter, statistically?

When you think you know the answer, try the simulator to see if you were right.


 
The simulator randomly positions the car and the goats in the three green boxes. To start a run, click on one of the question marks. The simulator will then open a box with a goat in it. If you have chosen the car, the simulator will randomly select one of the two boxes with a goat. Click again when you have decided if you want to keep or change your first choice.

When you have done your second choice the simulator will reveal the content of all boxes and update the statistics to show the results for changing and keeping respectively. A new run will be prepared when you move the cursor out from the photo or if you click again.

You can let the computer run 10, 100 or 1000 runs after each other. Select the number of runs and if choice shall be kept or changed each time and start with the Start button. The simulator will randomly select a box and keep/change the choice after your wish. You can stop the run with the stop-button.

By checking Cheat the boxes will be marked with C and G to show where the Car and the Goats are.

The clear button will reset the statistics to zero.


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